Quotes from Tim Harford

But we can and should remember to ask who or what might be missing from the data we're being told about.

I spent the summer of 2005 studying poker. I interviewed some of the best players in the world, attended the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, analysed 'pokerbots' – poker-playing computers – and chronicled the efforts of

Man-made light was once a thing that was too precious to use. Now it is too cheap to notice.

The United Nations, for example, has embraced a series of ambitious "Sustainable Development Goals" for 2030. But development experts are starting to call attention to a problem: we often don't have the data we would need to figure out whether those goals have been met.

Efek kepemilikan itu tidak rasional, dan itu nyata-tetapi tidak mempengaruhi orang-orang yang berpengalaman dalam situasi-situasi realistis.

countries. The United States has a notoriously high infant mortality rate for a rich country—6.1 deaths per thousand live births in 2010. In Finland, by comparison, it is just 2.3. But it turns out that physicians in America, like those in the UK's Midlands, seem to be far more likely to record a pregnancy that ends at twenty-two weeks as a live birth, followed by an early death, than as a late miscarriage.

Menjadi rasional tidaklah sama dengan menjadi sangat cerdas secara intelektual.

It's so damn complex. If you ever think you have the solution to this, you're wrong and you're

Ormerod's discovery strongly implies that effective planning is rare in the modern economy.

150 miles outside Baghdad and began shooting children. By his own account, he 'saw that children were in the room kneeling down. I

Presumably this is because we personally experience our own localities, but we rely on the news for information about the wider world.

In fact, about 60 percent of gun deaths in the United States are suicides, not homicides or rare accidents.

their mistakes. Most individuals suffer from the same problem. Accepting trial and error means accepting error. It means taking problems in our stride when a decision doesn't work out, whether through luck or misjudgement. And that is not something human brains seem to be able to do without a struggle. 9

we don't ask what works, we simply gravitate to what sounds miraculous.

There are some overtly racist and sexist people out there—look around—but in general what we count and what we fail to count is often the result of an unexamined choice, of subtle biases and hidden assumptions that we haven't realized are leading us astray.

For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded," wrote Philip Tetlock after the study had been completed. "It would be facile to reduce superforecasting to a bumper-sticker slogan, but if I had to, that would be it.

Screening, the theory of which won enfant terrible Joe Stiglitz a share of the Nobel Prize in 2001, is the art of finding out hidden information by forcing people to act, rather than simply murmur sweet nothings.)

The Soviet failure revealed itself much more gradually: it was a pathological inability to experiment. The

Van Meegeren admitted painting not only the work that had been found in Nazi hands, but Christ at Emmaus and several other supposed Vermeers.

una póliza de seguros depende de la ignorancia mutua. Una

These days, doctors care about rigorous evidence, because they know that bad advice can kill, and good intentions save nobody.

For obvious reasons, this particular flavor of survivorship bias is called "publication bias." Interesting findings are published; non-findings, or failures to replicate previous findings, face a higher publication hurdle.

Permaina adalah uraian matrmatis dari hubungan antara strategi-strategi dan kemungkinan hasil-hasilnya.

The likes of Google and Target are no more keen to share their datasets and algorithms than Newton was to share his alchemical experiments. Sometimes