Quotes About Certainty

The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.

We often call a certainty a hope, to bring it luck.

DEFINITENESS OF DECISION. The man who wavers in his decisions, shows that he is not sure of himself. He cannot lead others successfully.

If you don't believe it yourself, don't ask anyone else to do so.

se um homem não consegue tomar uma decisão prontamente uma vez de posse de todos os fatos necessários, não se pode esperar que cumpra qualquer decisão que tomar".

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

No person in a transaction should have certainty about the outcome while the other one has uncertainty.

You will never fully convince someone that he is wrong; only reality can.

The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.

A half-man (or, rather, half-person) is not someone who does not have an opinion, just someone who does not take risks for it.

One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.*

it is not so easy to "falsify," i.e., to state that something is wrong with full certainty. Imperfections

what Mother Nature does is rigorous until proven otherwise; what humans and science do is flawed until proven otherwise.

How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

cocksure prophet. Where I beg to differ with the great

Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown).

Como veíamos antes, los casos de desconfirmación tienen mucha más fuerza para establecer la verdad. Sin embargo, tendemos a no ser conscientes de esta propiedad.

It is true that 1,000 days cannot prove you right, but one day can prove you to be wrong.

But there are some things I can remain skeptical about, and others I can safely consider certain.

that even a broken clock is right twice a day.

in fact, they are so blind to the odds that they treat odds of one in a thousand and one in a million almost in the same way.

Mother of all harmful mistakes - mistaking absence of evidence for evidence of absence.

By all means, demand certainty for the next picnic; but avoid government social-security forecasts for the year 2040.

Do not question his procedure, only his confidence.