Quotes About Certainty

Many of them blindly believe in it.

the tendency to look at what confirms our knowledge, not our ignorance)

Platonicity is what makes us think that we understand more than we actually do.

law of iterated expectations, which I outline here in its strong form: if I expect to expect something at some date in the future, then I already expect that something at present.

We certainly know a lot, but we have a built-in tendency to think that we know a little bit more than we actually do

if you seek certainty about whether the patient has cancer, not certainty about whether he is healthy, then you might be satisfied with negative inference, since it will supply you the certainty you seek.

You will never fully convince

But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right. All pieces of information are not equal in importance.

the tendency not to reverse opinions you already have.

Fat Tony did not believe in predictions.

The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know. Lack of knowledge and delusion about the quality of your knowledge come together—the same process that makes you know less also makes you satisfied with your knowledge.

You are buying dependability.

The first error lies in taking a projection too seriously, without heeding its accuracy.

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. … Mother Nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table … In this book, considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of probabilistic thinking.

major ramification of the ludic fallacy: how those whose job it is to make us aware of uncertainty fail us and divert us into bogus certainties through the back door.

mistaking absence of evidence (of harm) for evidence of absence

I think it's very painful, and that it's better not to have any doubts. I envy those who don't have any; I envy them a lot. They are happy people.

A mind that trusts itself is light on its feet.

It is not what "they" think; it is what I know. What I know is more important to me than a mistaken belief in someone else's mind.

At that moment he could have said the earth was made of chocolate pudding and I would have believed it.

truth and conviction are not comfortable bedfellows, and what one believes will often cast out that which is true.

Because it is easier to believe that scythes aren't real, and that I am a liar, and that the moon is made of cheese, than it is to admit that everything you believe about the world is wrong.

Because believing in nothing is still believing in something—and only by reaching eternity will anyone know the truth of it all.

Rightmindness is overrated, Goddard said. I'd rather have a mind that's clear than a mind that's right.