Quotes About Chance

that we generally take risks not out of bravado but out of ignorance and blindness to probability!

My being here is a consequential low-probability occurrence, and I tend to forget it.

Some blindness to the odds or an obsession with their own positive Black Swan is necessary for entrepreneurs to function. The

Black Swan logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know.

the longer these animals can go without encountering the rare event, the more vulnerable they will be to it.

otherwise the odds would be too low to get here just by luck.

Risk and ruin are different tings.

Luck favors the prepared

because they underestimate the impact of the highly improbable

Had it not been for the discovery of antibiotics, only a few decades earlier, I would not be here today.

Clearly, binary outcomes are not very prevalent in life; they mostly exist in laboratory experiments and in research papers. In life, payoffs are usually open-ended, or, at least, variable.

Silent evidence is what events use to conceal their own randomness, particularly the Black Swan type of randomness.

It qualified as a Black Swan, but I did not know the expression then.

That was my best investment—risk turned out to be the topic I know the best.

Imagine what might have happened had you not missed your train

Given that it was not predictable, you are not to blame.

with unknown side effects

Ainoa asia, jota onnetar ei säätele, on käyttäytymiseni.

try to benefit from rare events, events that do not tend to repeat themselves frequently, but, accordingly, present a large payoff when they occur.

the Black Swan is what we leave out of simplification.

randomness, in practice, is what we don't know; to invoke randomness is to plead ignorance).

investors are led to overestimate their chances of success.

One needs to go out and buy a lottery ticket in order to win. Does it mean that the work involved in the trip to the store caused the winning?

Knowing that you cannot predict does not mean that you cannot benefit from unpredictability.