Quotes About Chance

which condition preceded the other.

Uncertainty did occasionally pay off there.

Accidentul pozitiv (ca în cazul medicamentului pentru hipertensiune care a produs beneficii colaterale ce au condus apoi la Viagra) a reprezentat metoda central? a empiriÈ™tilor în descoperirea medical?. AceeaÈ™i idee poate fi generalizat? în cazul vieÈ›ii: profitaÈ›i la maxim de întâmpl?rile fericite din jur.

chance favors the prepared

Remember that positive Black Swans have a necessary first step: you need to be exposed to them.

Put yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones.

that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

judged by their actions, not by the results. No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

what is absent from the data should be taken into account—absence of Black Swans in the record doesn't mean these were not there.

Los Cisnes Negros que imaginamos, de los que hablamos y nos preocupamos no se parecen a los que previsiblemente son Cisnes Negros. Como veremos a continuación, nos preocupamos de los sucesos «improbables» equivocados.

in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you can't know) is the central idea of uncertainty.

Monte Carlo (the old name for a roulette wheel)

or "what are the ten best books

the Black Swan is not just about the occurrence of some event but also about its depth and consequences.)

exposure is more important than knowledge;

In other words, it will not be Black Swan driven.

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. … Mother Nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table … In this book, considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of probabilistic thinking.

A person can get slightly ahead for entirely random reasons;

the world is too random and unpredictable to base a policy on visibility of the future.

the mistake may turn out to be inconsequential. Or

With respect to Black Swans, you act to protect yourself from negative ones (or expose yourself to positive ones) even though you may have no evidence that they can take place

Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge

Nassim Nicholas Taleb