Quotes About Consequences

fragility and absence of skin in the game.

My idea is that not only are some scientific results useless in real life, because they underestimate the impact of the highly improbable (or lead us to ignore it), but that many of them may be actually creating Black Swans. These

The fact that he did not experience John's success was the reason he did not suffer his downfall.

La burocracia es una estructura mediante la cual una persona es convenientemente separada de las consecuencias de sus actos.

encouraging traders to make steady money at the expense of hidden risks of Black Swans, consequential losses.

Every single risk you take adds up to reduce your life expectancy.

There is no penalty for opinion makers who harm society.

Anyone who causes harm by forecasting should be treated as either a fool or a lier. Some forecasters cause more damage to society than criminals.

For a theory is a very dangerous thing to have.

focusing on the rationality of a belief rather than its consequences

blame his successor for subsequent results.

that the Black Swan has three attributes: unpredictability, consequences, and retrospective explainability. Let

The gains from size are visible but the risks are hidden

This example not only gives us an idea of harm done by those who intervene, but, worse, it illustrates the lack of awareness of the need to look for a break-even point between benefits and harm.

Just as those who live by the sword die by the sword, those who earn their living taking risks will lose their livelihood taking risks.

Always remember that, in a modern environment, wars last longer and kill more people than is typically planned.

the long-term harm is largely unaccounted for.

This absence of penalty makes them antifragile at the expense of the society

people who are otherwise rational engage in smoking or in fights that get them no immediate benefits;

Know how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.

while the lives saved by the drug might not be accounted for anywhere.

Had it been expected, it would not have caused the damage it did

Give me a few lines written by any man and I will find enough to get him hung

it had gotten France and Britain heavily in debt; they incurred at least ten times what they thought their financial costs would be