Quotes About Consequences

In fact we humans are very bad at filtering information, particularly short-term information, and procrastination can be a way for us to filter better, to resist the consequences of jumping on information, as we discuss next.

the person who made a false accusation was punished as if he committed the exact crime.

It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.

In their aftermath, who got the recognition?

They refuse the notion of design by a creator who knows everything, while, at the same time, want to impose human design as if they knew all the consequences. In general, the more people worship the sacrosanct state (or, equivalently, large corporations), the more they hate skin in the game. The more they believe in their ability to forecast, the more they hate skin in the game. The more they wear suits and ties, the more they hate skin in the game.

Things designed by people without skin in the game tend to grow in complication (before their final collapse).

Selfish courage is not courage. A foolish gambler is not committing an act of courage, especially if he is risking other people's funds or has a family to feed.*4

Success is leading an honorable life. Honor implies that there are some actions you would categorically never do, regardless of the material rewards. It also means that there are things you would do unconditionally, regardless of the consequences.

on how human nature knows no upper bound, as if to punish itself.

a system that doesn't have a mechanism of skin in the game, with a buildup of imbalances, will eventually blow up and self-repair that way. If it survives.

I started to see the consequences of the idea.

Cualquier reducción del mundo que nos rodea puede tener unas consecuencias explosivas, ya que descarta algunas fuentes de incertidumbre, y nos empuja a malinterpretar el tejido del mundo.

He dicho que el Cisne Negro tiene tres atributos: la impredecibilidad, las consecuencias y la explicabilidad retrospectiva. Examinemos eso de la impredecibilidad.*

Talvez a ideia por trás do capitalismo seja um efeito iatrogênico inverso, as consequências involuntárias-mas-não-tão-involuntárias: o sistema facilita a conversão de objetivos egoístas (ou, para ser correto, não necessariamente benevolentes) no nível individual para resultados benéficos ao coletivo.

how rich you'd be today had you liquidated your portfolio at the height of the NASDAQ bubble).

with unknown side effects

Look at the implication for the Black Swan. Extremistan can produce Black Swans, and does, since a few occurrences have had huge influences on history. This is the main idea of this book.

And numerical prediction leads people to take more risks.

We have always been crazy but weren't skilled enough to destroy the world. Now we can.

those who cannot learn from experience, or don't mind taking risks they don't understand, may kill many.

Success brings an asymmetry: you now have a lot more to lose than to gain.

a system that doesn't have a mechanism of skin in the game, with a buildup of imbalances, will eventually blow up and self-repair that way.

In the end it is those who derive consequences and seize the importance of the ideas, seeing their real value, who win the day. They are the ones who can talk about the subject.

in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability (which you can't know) is the central idea of uncertainty.