Quotes About Ambiguity

In the complex world, the notion of "cause" itself is suspect; it is either nearly impossible to detect or not really defined—another reason to ignore newspapers, with their constant supply of causes for things.

it is not so easy to "falsify," i.e., to state that something is wrong with full certainty. Imperfections

but at least I know that I cannot forecast and a small number of people (those I care about) take that as an asset.

our misunderstanding of the Black Swan can be largely attributed to our using System 1, i.e., narratives

Problema noastr? nu este numai c? nu cunoa?tem viitorul, ci ?i c? nu cunoa?tem nici trecutul.

Half of life—the interesting half of life—we don't have a name for.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

is often a good career move for an author.

It is often said that is wise he who can see things coming. Perhaps the wise one is the one who knows that he cannot see things far away.

you can always mention Wittgenstein since he is vague enough to always seem relevant

Wittgenstein is occasionally mentioned (you can always mention Wittgenstein since he is vague enough to always seem relevant).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

el mayor y más acuciante objetivo humano es comprender cómo actuar en condiciones de información incompleta.

Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser.

I count myself one of those).

there is no other way to produce a forecast without being a turkey somewhere, particularly in the complex environment in which we live today.

The more uncertainty, the more valuable the option.

we will look at it with respect to resistance to randomness.

although no single action will have a meaningful effect.

the nonlinearity (that is, the asymmetry, with more upside than downside; asymmetry is a form of nonlinearity).

when its wording is slightly modified.

No one in particular is a good predictor of anything. Sorry.

Much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.

could not understand what made one explanation more likely than the other