Quotes About Ambiguity

there is a disproportionate payoff from the unknown, since you typically have little to lose and plenty to gain from a rare event.

Things are not as simple as that. We

we are not made to understand the point, so we overreact emotionally to noise.

in spite of our progress and the growth in knowledge, or perhaps because of such progress and growth, the future will be increasingly less predictable

Black Swan logic makes what you don't know far more relevant than what you do know.

But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right. All pieces of information are not equal in importance.

At the core, he tends to mistake the unknown for the nonexistent.

The resulting measure of future uncertainty satisfies our ingrained desire to simplify even if that means squeezing into one single number matters that are too rich to be described that way.

We have to accept the fuzziness of the familiar "because" no matter how queasy it makes us feel (and it does makes us queasy to remove the analgesic illusion of causality).

Clearly, binary outcomes are not very prevalent in life; they mostly exist in laboratory experiments and in research papers. In life, payoffs are usually open-ended, or, at least, variable.

Yet there may not be a visible because; to the contrary, frequently there is nothing, not even a spectrum of possible explanations.

The future ain't what it used to be," Berra

Cualquier reducción del mundo que nos rodea puede tener unas consecuencias explosivas, ya que descarta algunas fuentes de incertidumbre, y nos empuja a malinterpretar el tejido del mundo.

Which of these two statements seems more likely? Joey seemed happily married. He killed his wife. Joey seemed happily married. He killed his wife to get her inheritance.

The neglect of silent evidence is endemic to the way we study comparative talent, particularly in activities that are plagued with winner-take-all attributes. We may enjoy what we see, but there is no point reading too much into success stories because we do not see the full picture.

Whenever your survival is in play, don't immediately look for causes and effects.

with unknown side effects

the Black Swan is what we leave out of simplification.

randomness, in practice, is what we don't know; to invoke randomness is to plead ignorance).

la acción del Cisne Negro se sitúa en Extremistán, no es más que una mera aproximación; les ruego que no la platonifiquen, no la simplifiquemos más de lo que sea necesario.

Knowing that you cannot predict does not mean that you cannot benefit from unpredictability.

We know with much more clarity what is bad than what is good.

Uncertainty did occasionally pay off there.

or mistaking a profitable bet for good forecasting—not convexity of payoff and optionality).