Quotes About Judgment

The verdict appears to be a consequence of hindsight bias—the human tendency to believe that whatever happened was bound to happen, and that everyone must have known it. If [the foreman] believed that an explosion was imminent, then he is a monster; but of that there is no evidence. Hindsight bias is not enough to support a verdict.

When we have a negative opinion about the person delivering the message, we close our minds to what they are saying and miss a lot of learning opportunities because of it. Likewise, when we have a positive opinion of the messenger, we tend to accept the message without much vetting. Both are bad.

Job and relocation decisions are bets. Sales negotiations and contracts are bets. Buying a house is a bet. Ordering the chicken instead of the steak is a bet. Everything is a bet.

was a victim of our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.

victim of our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome.

Deciding which hands are worth playing and which hands are not is the first and most consequential choice a player makes. And pros are just better at that choice, playing a mere 15% to 25% of the two-card starting combinations they are dealt in Texas Hold'em. Compare that to an amateur, who will stick with their starting cards over half the time. In the battle of whether to hold 'em or fold 'em, amateurs usually hold 'em. Professionals usually fold 'em.

might have been absurd, but I was making the point that a necessary part of succeeding in poker is to fold some hands that might have won. To be good at the game you just have to learn to live with that. Playing every hand you are dealt is an easy and fast way to go broke since you would be playing too many hands that aren't profitable in the long run.

In every domain, the outcome tail is wagging the decision dog.

Complex and open-minded thought is most likely to be activated when decision makers learn prior to forming any opinions that they will be accountable to an audience (a) whose views are unknown, (b) who is interested in accuracy, (c) who is reasonably well-informed, and (d) who has a legitimate reason for inquiring into the reasons behind participants' judgments/choices.

Resulting is the tendency to look at whether a result was good or bad to figure out whether a decision was good or bad.

You can't tell that much about the quality of a decision from a single outcome, because of luck. When you make a decision, you can rarely guarantee a good outcome (or a bad one). Instead, the goal is to try to choose the option that will lead to the most favorable range of outcomes.

Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future.

Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

Tout de même, supporter tant de mépris... Vronski, pire que Vronski.

J'ai toujours voulu écrire comme si je devais être absente à la parution du texte. Écrire comme si je devais mourir, qu'il n'y ait plus de juges.

On another afternoon I entered Saint Patrice's Church just off the Boulevard de la Marne to tell a priest that I'd had an abortion. I immediately realized this was a mistake. I felt bathed in a halo of light and for him I was a criminal. Leaving the church, I realized that I was through with religion.

Me ha parecido que la escritura debería tender a esto, a esta impresión que provoca la escena del acto sexual, a esta angustia y a este estupor, a una suspensión del juicio moral.

Es interesante, en realidad!… En el momento actual no podemos saber qué, con el tiempo, llegará a tenerse por importante y qué por lastimoso y ridículo.

Uma ideia fixa: "O que vão pensar da gente?" (os vizinhos, os clientes, todo mundo). A regra básica era sempre dar um jeito de escapar à crítica dos outros, sendo muito educado, não emitindo opiniões, ou vigiando o tempo todo o próprio temperamento, para não deixar escapar nada que pudesse ser julgado pelos outros.

no one even knows if she likes boys or girls, she won't tell anyone. People resent that about her, and Connell thinks that's why they tell the story, as a way of gawking at something they're not allowed to see.

J'ai toujours voulu écrire comme si je devais être absente à la parution du texte. Écrire comme si je devais mourir, qu'il n'y ait plus de juges.

Jusqu'à l'été précédent, j'avais réussi au prix d'efforts et d'humiliations Ã¢â'¬â€œ  être traitée de salope et d'allumeuse Ã¢â'¬â€œ à ne pas faire l'amour complètement.

Je n'estimais pas que Jean T. m'avait traitée avec mépris. Pour lui, j'étais passée de la catégorie des filles dont on ne sait pas si elles acceptent de coucher à celle des filles qui, de façon indubitable, ont déjà couché.

Et, comme d'habitude, il était impossible de déterminer si l'avortement était interdit parce que c'était mal, ou si c'était mal parce que c'était interdit. On jugeait par rapport à la loi, on ne jugeait pas la loi.