Quotes About Forecasting

the futurists predict the future of nations, but is difficult for them to predict their future

One of the weird things about being a designer is guessing what the world will want about a year in advance of when they will want it. It becomes almost a psychological test in a way - how do I feel now and how do I want to feel then.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.

The reason why China forecasting has such a poor track record is that Westerners constantly invoke the model and experience of the West to explain China, and it is a false prophet. Until we start trying to understand China on its own terms, rather than as a Western-style nation in the making, we will continue to get it wrong.

Any econometrician who wants to see practical application of his science will be highly concerned with applications to economic planning at the national level.

That always seemed the coolest thing to me. How do you use num'bers to predict things? It was like a cool way to use numbers to be better than other people. And I really liked being better than other people.

The idea of trying to predict what people will or won't respond to is risky.

The goal of having more and more information is really to better be able to predict what is your health outcome going to be.

Trying to predict the future is a loser's game.

Predictions are a mug's game.

I'm generally considered a conservative in my predictions for disease.

I don't think we should run government based on economists' predictions.

Economic forecasting has actually got pretty good over the years, though admittedly, we don't always get it right.

We need to incorporate the contagion of narratives into economic theory. Otherwise, we remain blind to a very real, very palpable, very important mechanism for economic change, as well as a crucial element for economic forecasting. If we do not understand the epidemics of popular narratives, we do not fully understand changes in the economy and in economic behavior.

future. After The Worldly Philosophers, I recommend reading The Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin, Paul Zane Pilzer's Unlimited Wealth, James Dale Davidson's The Sovereign Individual, Robert Preacher's The Crest of the Wave, and Harry Dent's The Great Depression Ahead.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.

One may say that predictions are dangerous particularly for the future. If the danger involved in a prediction is not incurred, no consequence follows and the uncertainty principle is not violated.

As for the future, the Mirror was not optimistic. 'If the 1980s are as awful as they predict,' it thought, 'the only people working at the end of them will be the experts forecasting unemployment for everyone else.

Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.

Everyone was jolly cross with Michael Fish when he didn't see the 1987 storm coming. But it turns out that he had no satellites and no computers, just a big checked jacket. Big checked jackets are no good at predicting the weather.

Because the art and science of forecasting is so complex, you might be tempted to give all forecasting responsibility to a single manager who can be made accountable for it. But this usually does not work very well. What works better is to ask both the manufacturing and the sales departments to prepare a forecast, so that people are responsible for performing against their own predictions.

Whenever you try to pick market tops and bottoms, you are making a prediction. Guessing what stock is going to outperform the market is forecasting, as is selling a stock for no apparent reason. Indeed, nearly all capital decisions made by most people are unconscious predictions.

Our European neighbours in France have invested in their infrastructure early and are now reaping the rewards later. This is because wherever high-speed rail has been built between the major cities and economic centres of a country - as in HS2 - it has exceeded demand forecasts.

It's true that you can't take an individual rain droplet and say where it's come from or where it's going to end up. But you can say with pretty good certainty whether it will be cloudy tomorrow.