Quotes About Randomness

which condition preceded the other.

We have been fragilizing the economy, our health, political life, education, almost everything Ã¢â'¬Â¦ by suppressing randomness and volatility. Just as spending a month in bed (preferably with an unabridged version of War and Peace and access to The Sopranos' entire eighty-six episodes) leads to muscle atrophy, complex systems are weakened, even killed, when deprived of stressors.

We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract. Everything good (aesthetics, ethics) and wrong (Fooled by Randomness) with us seems to flow from it.

the same condition that makes us simplify pushes us to think that the world is less random than it actually is. And the Black Swan is what we leave out of simplification.

é uma grande lenda acreditar que o planejamento ajuda as corporações: com efeito, vimos que o mundo é aleatório e imprevisível demais para que uma política seja baseada na visibilidade do futuro. O que sobrevive vem da interação entre alguma aptidão e as condições ambientais.

that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck (and often rapidly and unexpectedly at that). The flipside, which deserves to be considered as well (in fact it is even more of our concern), is that things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

judged by their actions, not by the results. No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word.

On alternative histories, a probabilistic view of the world, intellectual fraud, and the randomness wisdom of a Frenchman with steady bathing habits. How journalists are bred to not understand random series of events.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

what is absent from the data should be taken into account—absence of Black Swans in the record doesn't mean these were not there.

Los Cisnes Negros que imaginamos, de los que hablamos y nos preocupamos no se parecen a los que previsiblemente son Cisnes Negros. Como veremos a continuación, nos preocupamos de los sucesos «improbables» equivocados.

Monte Carlo (the old name for a roulette wheel)

or "what are the ten best books

In other words, it will not be Black Swan driven.

There is one world in which I believe the habit of mistaking luck for skill is most prevalent—and most conspicuous—and that is the world of markets. By

Da mesma forma, quando trabalhava como trader, uma profissão repleta de altas doses de aleatoriedade, com contínuos danos psicológicos que perfuram até as profundezas da alma do indivíduo, eu punha em prática o exercício mental de aceitar, todas as manhãs, que a pior coisa possível já havia acontecido

A person can get slightly ahead for entirely random reasons;

The main identifiable reason for our survival of such diseases might simply be inaccessible to us: we are here since, Casanova-style, the "rosy" scenario played out, and if it seems too hard to understand it is because we are too brainwashed by notions of causality and we think that it is smarter to say because than to accept randomness.

the world is too random and unpredictable to base a policy on visibility of the future.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Luck, however, is too dumb to remain consistent

The harder you scrutinize randomness, Faraday declared, the more coincidence seems like a design.

The harder you scrutinize randomness, the more coincidence seems like design.