Quotes About Analysis

I believe that forcing researchers to eat their own cooking whenever possible solves a serious problem in science.

probability is principally a branch of applied skepticism

In the complex world, the notion of "cause" itself is suspect; it is either nearly impossible to detect or not really defined—another reason to ignore newspapers, with their constant supply of causes for things.

When the person is highly intelligent, he can astonish you with the most far-fetched, yet completely plausible interpretations of the most innocuous remark. If

Mathematics is not just a numbers game, it is a way of thinking.

Their three flaws: 1) they think in statics not dynamics, 2) they think in low, not high, dimensions, 3) they think in terms of actions, never interactions.

Evidence shows that we do much less thinking than we believe we do-except, of course, when we think about it.

I mentioned earlier that to understand successes and analyze what caused them, we need to study the traits present in failures.

do not use this argument to avoid trying to learn from history. All I am saying is that it is not so simple; be suspicious of the "because" and handle it with care—particularly in situations where you suspect silent evidence.

Makridakis and Hibon reached the sad conclusion that statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones.

In this world, you should always be suspicious of the knowledge you derive from data.

Economics cannot digest the idea that the collective (and the aggregate) are disproportionately less predictable than individuals.

that to understand successes and analyze what caused them, we need to study the traits present in failures.

The dentist did better when he dealt with monthly statements rather than more frequent ones.

He can also formulate a hypothesis after the results of the experiment—thus fitting the hypothesis to the experiment.

It is hard to explain to naive data-driven people that risk is in the future, not in the past.

It will take a lot of statistical information to override your hesitation.

No single observation can meaningfully affect the aggregate.

Journalists can teach us how to not learn.

It is very difficult to isolate a single cause when there are plenty around.

Mathematics is not just a "numbers game," it is a way of thinking. We will see that probability is a qualitative subject.

Bent Flyvbjerg (do capítulo 18) mostrou, em seu Black Swan Management [Gerenciamento do Cisne Negro], a

In fact we humans are very bad at filtering information, particularly short-term information, and procrastination can be a way for us to filter better, to resist the consequences of jumping on information, as we discuss next.

Besides narrative and causality, journalists and public intellectuals of the sound-bite variety do not make the world simpler. Instead, they almost invariably make it look far more complicated than it is.