Quotes About Analysis

many historians looking at the record have been taken aback by the swiftness of the change.

getting a lot of "timely" statistics are capable of overreacting and mistaking noise for information—

The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you are disproportionally likely to get (rather than the valuable part, called the signal);

Never compare a multiplicative, systemic, and fat-tailed risk to a non-multiplicative, idiosyncratic, and thin-tailed one.

The way to remedy this is through meta-analyses of scientific studies, in which an überresearcher peruses the entire literature, which includes the less-advertised articles, and produces a synthesis.

It is the system and its fragility, not events, that must be studied

the concept of median used in medical research does not characterize a probability distribution.

their role being confined to analysis, not decision making.

Realism can be punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse. It is difficult to go about life wearing probabilistic glasses, as one starts seeing fools of randomness all around, in a variety of situations—obdurate in their perceptional illusion. To start, it is impossible to read a historian's analysis without questioning the inferences:

When your sample is large, no single instance will significantly change the aggregate or the total.

A very rarely discussed property of data: it is toxic in large quantities

By the mechanism of retrospective determinism we will find the "cause"—actually

Given that the window used for the calculation of patient survival is five years

o acesso a dados aumenta a intervenção, fazendo com que nos comportemos como o sujeito neurótico.

Mathematics is not just a "numbers game," it is a way of thinking.

their intention was to bring a critical "balance" and use me as a counter to the numerous imaginative forecasts

Categorizing always produces reduction in true complexity.

because they cost more to run than the benefits they bring.

they make sure that the costs of being wrong are limited (and their probability is not derived from past data).

The more remote the event, the less we can get empirical data (assuming generously that the future will resemble the past) and the more we need to rely on theory.

He was too calm and cool an observer. Phoebe felt his eye, often; his heart, seldom or never.

It seems in the final analysis that people who get involved in religion are only after their own personal happiness.

Ezra the artist, who Possuelo saw fit to set free, took to painting a mural to fill one of the larger caverns. It tickled him that this could become a pilgrimage destination for future Tonists, if indeed there would be any future Tonists, and that his cave paintings might be endlessly analyzed by scholars of tomorrow. He introduced some odd elements just to confuse them. A dancing bear, a five-eyed boy, and an eleven-hour clock missing the number 4.

I have yet to decide what is to be learned from this region. Further study is necessary.