Quotes About Inference

You must not think that because one thing happens after another thing, then it is the first thing that causes the second thing. You must not think that, because it might not be true.

post hoc ergo propter hoc. In other words, there would be no causal

If we see you smoking we will assume you are on fire and take appropriate action.

Rule of Five There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population is between the smallest and largest values in any random sample of five from that population.

you should start thinking about measurements as a multistep chain of thought. Inferences can be made from highly indirect observations.

Two good indicators of revealed preferences are things the people tend to value a lot: time and money. If you look at how they spend their time and how they spend their money, you can infer quite a lot about their real preferences.

Show me your friends and I will tell you who you are.

In order to be able to infer that "A causes B," we need to be able to run the experiment many times.

It sounds as if we're assessing the quality of a work of art in terms of its attributes, but in fact we're doing the opposite—deciding first which painting is the best, and only then inferring from its attributes the metrics of quality.

The result is that we are tempted to infer a cause-and-effect relationship when all we have witnessed is a sequence of events. This is the post-hoc fallacy.

RESULTING A mental shortcut in which we use the quality of an outcome to figure out the quality of a decision.

Every man is like the company he wont to keep.

..... it would be interesting to find out what goes on in that moment when someone looks at you and draws all sorts of conclusions.

It has been observed that one's nose is never so happy as when thrust into the affairs of others from which some physiologists have drawn the inference that the nose is devoid of the sense of smell.

Heaven is a prophecy uttered by the lips of despair, but Hell is an inference from analogy.

Self-perception theory (Bem, 1967, 1972) argues that dissonance effects were not the result of motivation to reduce the psychological discomfort produced by cognitive dissonance but were due to a nonmotivational process whereby persons merely inferred their attitudes from their behavior and the circumstances under which the behavior occurred.

Ex ungue leonem [From his claw one can tell a lion].

But at the same time I recalled something Holmes had said to me many times, namely that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

Deep reading refers to a whole continuum of processes that include some of the most important things about thinking and how we connect thought to what we read - critical analysis, analogical reasoning, how we infer from the text, how do we take another's perspective.

There can never be surprises in logic.

Certainty is as it were a tone of voice in which one declares how things are, but one does not infer from the tone of voice that one is justified.

A certeza é por assim dizer um tom de voz em que alguém declara como são as coisas, mas não se infere desse tom que tem razão.

Há homens que da simples contradita do adversário concluem pela incompetência dele.

No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.